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Gallup: GOP Poised in 2010, but Big Win Iffy

The results are slightly better for Republicans than the Gallup poll in July.
Monday, November 2, 2009

(UPI) - Republicans may have a good midterm election in 2010, but it may not be enough to regain control of the House, a Gallup Poll released Monday indicated.

Gallup's latest survey of the 2010 elections showed 46 percent of registered voters said they would support the Democratic candidate in their local district if the election were held today, compared to 44 percent who would vote for the Republican candidate.

The results are slightly better for Republicans than the Gallup poll in July, which showed Democrats were up by 50 percent to 44 percent, the Princeton, N.J., polling agency said.

Gallup said it measures voting intentions in midterm elections by using the generic congressional ballot, which it said has been an accurate predictor. The size of the lead among registered voters provides better insight than simply which party is ahead, the pollster said.

The reason the GOP is competitive in congressional elections is that Republicans generally turn out to vote at higher rates than Democrats, and midterm elections tend to have lower voter turnout than general elections, Gallup said.

The poll was conducted Oct. 1-4. No sampling number or margin of error was given.

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